2024 Annual Wealth Outlook
Slow then grow: Investing in the markets’ big reset
As we enter 2024, we are faced with several conundrums as investors. Given how high interest rates are, how has the world economy avoided recession? Is a downturnimminent? With all of the geopolitical challenges, what should we consider when investing for the future?
Welcome to Wealth Outlook 2024: Citi Global Wealth’s annual report presents our assessment of the global economy and the potential opportunities that follow for the coming year and beyond.
CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of 13th May 2024
All Eyes on Interest And Inflation Rates
Interest rate volatility has picked up lately and the US jobs market has become a market focus again . This week, our APAC Investment Strategist, Calvin Ha, examines the latest developments in interest rates and the Fed's policy direction.
Watch Now >
CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Week of May 11th, 2024 By Citi Wealth Insights
Asked and Answered: Your Questions
China, the US Election and Trade Wars, Ukraine, and Whether Investors Should Go Away in May
Our clients have many great questions that reflect a wide range of uncertainties that are generally always present. This week, we address questions on investments in China, Europe, US trade policy and elections.
Weekly FX Focus ꟾ May 9th, 2024
DXY – Two Factors Needed To Convince The Fed For Rate Cuts
Powell at the Fed's May FOMC statement maintained that policy rates were sufficiently restrictive and that rate hikes were not being considered. With Q1 US data out of the way that had a number of seasonal quirks, expectations are that the cleaner Q2 data will show both inflation declining and US labor market weakening enough for the Fed to consider multiple rate cuts.
FX Perspectives | May 10th, 2024
Can The Unexpected Strength In DXY Continue?
In our April FX podcast, Our Head of FX Strategy presented a case for the broad-based DXY index to eventually fall to the lower end of its 102-104 range in the second quarter. However, things have played out different since, with the index now in a higher 104-107 range. What are the factors at play and will this continue?
Listen to the Podcast >
2024 Annual Wealth Outlook
Slow then grow: Investing in the markets’ big reset
As we enter 2024, we are faced with several conundrums as investors. Given how high interest rates are, how has the world economy avoided recession? Is a downturnimminent? With all of the geopolitical challenges, what should we consider when investing for the future?
Welcome to Wealth Outlook 2024: Citi Global Wealth’s annual report presents our assessment of the global economy and the potential opportunities that follow for the coming year and beyond.
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant April 19, 2024
Farewell Goldilocks! See You Again Someday
Strong US labor market data, consumer spending and a global trade/manufacturing recovery are “good reasons” for resumed upward pressure on interest rates. In contrast, a “surprise” rebound in US inflation after a sharp slowing in 2023 is driving tighter financial conditions. (i.e., a stronger US dollar, higher bond yields and lower share prices together).
Inflation measures spiked in the first quarter for a third consecutive year. But more than mere seasonal distortions, data suggest some of the slowing in the US CPI was overstated in 2023.
The inflation news requires a reset of the Fed’s “confidence vigil” before it can commence in unwinding restrictive monetary policy. This pushes back the timing of any potential Fed easing step to July 2024 at the earliest in our view.
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
World Investment Navigator – January 2024
- October 2023 price is gone, the opportunity remains.
- Markets still price in too high a probability of a March rate cut, in our view. Still, 150 bps of cuts expected in 12 months is not extreme.
- What has happened since OL24: Junk rally amid dovish Fed turn.
- How’s the broadening trade going?
- Health Care: the anti-obesity craze won’t stymie innovation.
- Yield curve is now very flat, and positively sloped between intermediate-to-long dated maturities.
- Intermediate IG still offer attractive “real” yields vs expected inflation with yields of about 5.15% for duration of about 4 years.
- USD: The recent squeeze up in DXY may partly be due to a rise in risk aversion related to the Middle East.
- Presidential Year Stock Market Returns.
- Market-cap vs Equal-weighted S&P 500 Over Time.
- China’s equity performance is uncorrelated with its GDP growth, while the property market has acted as a key source of wealth generation since 1997.
- Japan – Profitability, Investor Inflows, Currency Kicker.
Middle East Strategy ꟾ May 2024
Commodities in Focus: Tracking Trends in Oil, Gold and Copper
Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, have put the spotlight on the inherent risks to global energy supplies. However, while these events underscore a less secure environment, the actual impact on global markets and economies may be less negative than initially feared.
Citi Wealth Insights
Market Insights at Your Fingertips
Stay updated on key global market developments and Citi's house views on the latest headlines. Find out what's trending through our comprehensive market research reports and in-depth thematic articles.
**Please note that you will be leaving the Citi UAE website.
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant April 19, 2024
Farewell Goldilocks! See You Again Someday
Strong US labor market data, consumer spending and a global trade/manufacturing recovery are “good reasons” for resumed upward pressure on interest rates. In contrast, a “surprise” rebound in US inflation after a sharp slowing in 2023 is driving tighter financial conditions. (i.e., a stronger US dollar, higher bond yields and lower share prices together).
Inflation measures spiked in the first quarter for a third consecutive year. But more than mere seasonal distortions, data suggest some of the slowing in the US CPI was overstated in 2023.
The inflation news requires a reset of the Fed’s “confidence vigil” before it can commence in unwinding restrictive monetary policy. This pushes back the timing of any potential Fed easing step to July 2024 at the earliest in our view.
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
Disclaimer
This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003. Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.
This is not an official statement of Citigroup Inc. and may not reflect all of your investments with or made through Citibank. For an accurate record of your accounts and transactions, please consult your official statement. Before making any investment, each investor must obtain the investment offering materials, which include a description of the risks, fees and expenses and the performance history, if any, which may be considered in connection with making an investment decision. Each investor should carefully consider the risks associated with the investment and make a determination based upon the investor’s own particular circumstances, that the investment is consistent with the investor’s investment objectives. At any time, Citigroup companies may compensate affiliates and their representatives for providing products and services to clients.
This forecast is an estimate/ example only. It is not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment. It is not indicative, and it should not be construed as likely returns. There are potential risks of a loss as well.
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
Warning: These figures are estimates / examples only. They are not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment.