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Market Analysis with Investor Insights

Market Insights - Daily Currency Update

Daily Currency Update

Stay updated on market highlights and forecasts for key currencies with our daily currency report.

Our dedicated Treasury Sales Officers will support you with updates on foreign exchange markets and Citi foreign exchange forecasts.

You may reach out to the Treasury desk on +971 4 604 4743, from Monday to Thursday between 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. UAE time.

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CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of November 7, 2022


CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of November 7, 2022

This week in CIO Perspectives: Equity markets have never bottomed before a recession had even begun. Ken takes a look at how markets have performed in past recessions, what the Fed is signalling, and how a resilient portfolio can help you ride through the storm.

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CIO Strategy Bulletin | Week of Nov 21st, 2022 By Citi Wealth Insights

CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Week of Nov 28th, 2022 By Citi Wealth Insights

Five Charts That Matter

Despite relevant data that suggests inflation is abating, the yield curve, growth of money supply, home sales declines, and historical patterns of bear markets all point to a meaningful slowdown coming in 2023.

The debate between those who believe recession is avoidable and those who do not is unresolved. To us, whether it is called a recession or not is less relevant than the fact that the Fed is raising rates, withdrawing liquidity and ignoring signs of diminishing inflation.

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Tomorrow’s Markets Won’t Resemble Today’s

Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant November 2022

Tomorrow’s Markets Won’t Resemble Today’s

Confidence is growing that inflation is decelerating and Fed rate hikes are in their late stages. However, the follow-through impact from a year of radical monetary tightening is still to be felt in US employment and corporate profits in the coming year. While we see stronger long-term returns on this year’s valuation collapse, for now we have maintained a defensive asset allocation with large overweights in US high grade fixed income, and underweights in riskier equities.
Both an economic contraction and a trough in the economy are likely to occur within 2023. This sets the stage for opportunity to reallocate to greater equity and credit exposure in the coming year.

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WORLD INVESTMENT NAVIGATOR

WORLD INVESTMENT NAVIGATOR - November 2022

  • Rate shock, reduced liquidity raising correlation between markets, worsening risk-adjusted returns.
  • How do recessions end? Production contracts faster than demand, setting the stage for recovery at a pace that is faster than demand.
  • Equities have made a large down payment on future recovery. Yet US equity markets have never bottomed before a recession has begun.
  • A note on dividend growers: US adding more value than non-US
  • Rates Jumped Sharply, but Absolute Yield Levels Below Long-Term Averages.
  • Given October talk of Fed step-down, along with lower inflation readings, “little fires” contained for now
  • China: The Long-run Outlook May be Clouded, But the Near-Term Seems Unusually Depressed and Likely to Recover.
  • Gold: Real rate pressure on. Is gold already forecasting weaker inflation?
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CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of November 7, 2022

OUTLOOK 2022

The Expansion will Endure: Seeking Sustained Returns

The hope that 8 billion vaccinations and widespread population exposure to the Delta variant would be sufficient to subdue COVID-19 turned out to be false when Omicron struck. At the same time, Citi analysts became convinced that, for 2022 and 2023, the global economic recovery that is now underway will endure and ultimately outlast the pandemic. In short, we believe the world economy and equity markets have not peaked and have room to grow.

Citi analysts do not believe there will be a rapid return to normal anytime soon. In fact, there is a new normal evolving now that is central to our positive economic outlook. This new normal consists of the establishments of a data-enabled, decentralized, flexible and highly efficient economic order. Within it, the accelerated adoption of technology across every industry and every business is a necessity.

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Market & Wealth Insights

2022 Mid-Year Outlook | 20 June, 2022

Mid-Year Outlook:
Investing in the afterglow of a boom

The first few months of 2022 have been trying.


With the pandemic not yet over, rising inflation, interest rate hikes, slowing growth and geopolitical tensions have heightened the uncertainty. Amid these conditions, the question we hear more than any other is “what should I do now?”

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Market Insights at Your Fingertips

CITI WEALTH INSIGHTS

Market Insights at Your Fingertips

Stay updated on key global market developments and Citi's house views on the latest headlines. Find out what's trending through our comprehensive market research reports and in-depth thematic articles.

**Please note that you will be leaving the Citi UAE website.

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Disclaimer

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