Market Insights
Citi UAE's view on the financial market and the world of wealth today and tomorrow.
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CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Sep 25, 2022 By Citi Wealth Insights
A Fed Too Far? Positioning Portfolios for What’s Ahead
In this week's Bulletin, we look at the opportunities in investment grade and US government bonds that are, perhaps, the only ones we see in the near term. We can envision that the Fed will reverse policy later in 2023 after several months of major employment declines.
We also consider the troubling trajectory for the US economy if the Fed persists. We see the probability of a US recession next year at 70% and we expect a material fall in employment. The pain inflicted on households and small businesses will have lingering negative impacts into 2024.
2022 Mid-Year Outlook | 20 June, 2022
Mid-Year Outlook:
Investing in the Afterglow of a Boom
Wealth insights
Keeping focused amidst rising geopolitical tensions
By Citi Wealth Research
Market Volatility Intensified amid Major Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Crisis
Q2 2022 Market Outlook: Core themes and Unstoppable Trends
Unstoppable trends are major, multi-year phenomena that have the potential to transform the world, with far-reaching implications for portfolios. Citi analysts believe that these forces persist throughout economic cycles, and may provide resilient growth potential.
World Investment Navigator - August 2022
- We’ve raised our 2022 global GDP and S&P 500 EPS estimates marginally
- We’ve cut our 2023 global real GDP estimate from +2.7% to +1.7%
- We’ve cut our 2023 US real GDP estimate from +2.0% to +0.7%
- We expect S&P 500 EPS to fall nearly 10% next year from a record high in 2022.
- We think a recession or “stall” in the world economy will not be severe.
CITI WEALTH INSIGHTS
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Stay updated on key global market developments and Citi's house views on the latest headlines. Find out what's trending through our comprehensive market research reports and in-depth thematic articles.
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant September 15, 2022
Rate Hikes + Energy Crisis = Extreme USD
We continue to look for a stall or recession for the world economy in 2023 as the usual lags between tighter monetary policy and economic weakening unfold. Our latest issue of The Quadrant draws attention to current downside risks and addresses investors’ concerns.
OUTLOOK 2022
The Expansion will endure: Seeking sustained returns
The hope that 8 billion vaccinations and widespread population exposure to the Delta variant would be sufficient to subdue COVID-19 turned out to be false when Omicron struck. At the same time, Citi analysts became convinced that, for 2022 and 2023, the global economic recovery that is now underway will endure and ultimately outlast the pandemic. In short, we believe the world economy and equity markets have not peaked and have room to grow.
Citi analysts do not believe there will be a rapid return to normal anytime soon. In fact, there is a new normal evolving now that is central to our positive economic outlook. This new normal consists of the establishments of a data-enabled, decentralized, flexible and highly efficient economic order. Within it, the accelerated adoption of technology across every industry and every business is a necessity.
INSIGHTS
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