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Wealth insights
Keeping focused amidst rising geopolitical tensions
By Citi Wealth Research
Market Volatility Intensified amid Major Escalation of Russia-Ukraine Crisis
2022 May Monthly Market Outlook | 04 May,2022
The Late, Late, Late Fed Show
Taken at its word, the Fed will begin “rapid” Quantitative Tightening roughly two months after halting Quantitative Easing. Its projected short-term interest rate increases in the year ahead will roughly match the largest for any annual period in history. The Fed has positioned policy to be pro-cyclical rather than countercyclical, likely adding to financial market and economic volatility.
Lagging indicators such as employment and inventory restocking provide “inertia” for economic growth to continue this year. However, a demand slowdown is inevitable.
Therefore, Citi analysts have further shifted their asset allocation to better absorb greater market volatility and less robust economic growth following a strong recovery.
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Q2 2022 Market Outlook: Core themes and Unstoppable Trends
Unstoppable trends are major, multi-year phenomena that have the potential to transform the world, with far-reaching implications for portfolios. Citi analysts believe that these forces persist throughout economic cycles, and may provide resilient growth potential.
WORLD INVESTMENT NAVIGATOR
November 2021
Highlights:
- Taper without tantrum
- Fed tightening has begun, but early hikes should not end the bull market
- US Treasury yields higher than summer low, but well below YTD highs at long-end
- Germany: exports set to suffer as China slows
- China’s growth showed some resilience in October
- Latam inflation surprising to the upside, like in the rest of the world
CITI WEALTH INSIGHTS
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OUTLOOK 2022
The expansion will endure: Seeking sustained returns
The hope that 8 billion vaccinations and widespread population exposure to the Delta variant would be sufficient to subdue COVID-19 turned out to be false when Omicron struck. At the same time, Citi analysts became convinced that, for 2022 and 2023, the global economic recovery that is now underway will endure and ultimately outlast the pandemic. In short, we believe the world economy and equity markets have not peaked and have room to grow.
Citi analysts do not believe there will be a rapid return to normal anytime soon. In fact, there is a new normal evolving now that is central to our positive economic outlook. This new normal consists of the establishments of a data-enabled, decentralized, flexible and highly efficient economic order. Within it, the accelerated adoption of technology across every industry and every business is a necessity.
INSIGHTS
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