Market Insights
Citi UAE's view on the financial market and the world of wealth today and tomorrow.
Wealth Outlook 2023
Roadmap to recovery: Portfolios to anticipate opportunities
We expect 2023 to be a year of challenges but also of change. After 2022’s aggressive monetary tightening, we see a shallow recession in the US and worse in some other places, like the Eurozone. The painful market selloffs we saw in 2022 anticipated these conditions. Remember, historically equities have never begun recovering before a recession has even started.
During 2023, however, investors’ focus will shift to potential recovery in 2024. By understanding what is likely for the global economy and asset classes in the coming year, we can see a roadmap for investing.
Daily Currency Update
Stay updated on market highlights and forecasts for key currencies with our daily currency report.
Our dedicated Treasury Sales Officers will support you with updates on foreign exchange markets and Citi foreign exchange forecasts.
You may reach out to the Treasury desk at +971 4 604 4743, from Monday to Thursday between 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. UAE time.
CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of January 30, 2023
Welcome back to CIO Perspectives. In our latest episode, Head of Investment Strategy APAC Ken Peng takes us through the thought process on our asset allocation adjustments from the Global Investment Committee.
CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Week of Jan 30th, 2023 By Citi Wealth Insights
At the Intersection of Policy and Markets
This week we raised our global GDP forecasts for 2023 to +2.0% from +1.7%, while downgrading 2023 US growth estimates.
Recent data suggest the Fed's heavy-handed monetary policy is impacting a broader set of economic factors more deeply month over month. The decelerations associated with a pending recession are at work. Once unemployment starts to rise, it tends to keep rising until monetary policy eases and producers have cut "too much." Only then can an upcycle begin.
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant November 2022
Tomorrow’s Markets Won’t Resemble Today’s
Confidence is growing that inflation is decelerating and Fed rate hikes are in their late stages. However, the follow-through impact from a year of radical monetary tightening is still to be felt in US employment and corporate profits in the coming year. While we see stronger long-term returns on this year’s valuation collapse, for now we have maintained a defensive asset allocation with large overweights in US high grade fixed income, and underweights in riskier equities.
Both an economic contraction and a trough in the economy are likely to occur within 2023. This sets the stage for opportunity to reallocate to greater equity and credit exposure in the coming year.
WORLD INVESTMENT NAVIGATOR - December 2022
- Citi’s forecast on the same basis as the Fed’s (year end points, 4Q/4Q)
- Why consumer spending doesn’t need to slow further for manufacturing and trade activity to contract.
- Why is housing relevant to the whole US economy?
- What would a recessionary trough look like?
- The potential glide path towards recovery through 2023.
- From where would we reallocate to add to global equities?
- Post-recession returns – when they come – may be well above cycle averages.
- The euro bottomed back in mid-October, but remains cheap.
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Disclaimer
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