Market Insights
Citi UAE's view on the financial market and the world of wealth today and tomorrow.
2024 Annual Wealth Outlook
Slow then grow: Investing in the markets’ big reset
As we enter 2024, we are faced with several conundrums as investors. Given how high interest rates are, how has the world economy avoided recession? Is a downturnimminent? With all of the geopolitical challenges, what should we consider when investing for the future?
Welcome to Wealth Outlook 2024: Citi Global Wealth’s annual report presents our assessment of the global economy and the potential opportunities that follow for the coming year and beyond.
CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of March 25th 2024
Updates from the Fed Meeting, the BOJ and the Renewed Interest in Renewables
In this week's CIO Perspectives, our Head of APAC Investment Strategy Ken Peng weighs in on the latest from the Fed meeting, the Bank of Japan's change in policy and why there is renewed interest in renewable energy.
Watch Now >
CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Week of March 25th, 2024 By Citi Wealth Insights
Driving Powell’s Roadster
Central Banks Spur Equity Market Gains: US shares hit a new record high Thursday. The two more-dovish-than-expected central bank policy actions, along with Fed Chairman Powell’s steadfast comments that economic growth would not stop the US central bank from easing, helped boost equity markets. The Swiss National Bank was the first major central bank to lower borrowing costs with others expected to follow suit. While the Bank of Japan moved in the other direction, its impact was muted.
Weekly FX Focus ꟾ March 18th, 2024
DXY: Attention On The BoJ, Fed And SNB This Week
Markets see a busy week with 10 central bank meetings this week. Our Head of FX Strategy, Jai Tiwari brings our focus to 3 central bank meetings that markets highly anticipate.
FX Perspectives | February 9th, 2024
Correlation breakdowns between DXY and Other Assets
In our first FX podcast for 2024, we discuss how the correlation breakdowns between the DXY and other asset classes, including what is happening between US short rates and DXY. Our Global Head of FX Strategy tells us who could likely benefit and may underperform in this environment.
2024 Annual Wealth Outlook
Slow then grow: Investing in the markets’ big reset
As we enter 2024, we are faced with several conundrums as investors. Given how high interest rates are, how has the world economy avoided recession? Is a downturnimminent? With all of the geopolitical challenges, what should we consider when investing for the future?
Welcome to Wealth Outlook 2024: Citi Global Wealth’s annual report presents our assessment of the global economy and the potential opportunities that follow for the coming year and beyond.
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant February 29, 2024
Forecast Update: A “Challenging Resilience”
The US economy continues to outperform, strengthening the world growth outlook, but also challenging it with tight monetary policy. We’ve raised our 2024 real GDP estimate for the US from +1.6% to +2.0% (Fed rate cuts of limited scope are still expected to begin at mid-year).
We’ve long expected a global trade and manufacturing rebound within 2024. Signs of recovery are emerging a bit earlier, suggesting less acceleration later. As such, 2025’s growth forecasts have been reduced slightly. Our world GDP growth estimate for 2024 is revised up marginally to 2.3%. We expect a 2.7% gain in 2025, down from an estimated +2.8%.
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
World Investment Navigator – January 2024
- October 2023 price is gone, the opportunity remains.
- Markets still price in too high a probability of a March rate cut, in our view. Still, 150 bps of cuts expected in 12 months is not extreme.
- What has happened since OL24: Junk rally amid dovish Fed turn.
- How’s the broadening trade going?
- Health Care: the anti-obesity craze won’t stymie innovation.
- Yield curve is now very flat, and positively sloped between intermediate-to-long dated maturities.
- Intermediate IG still offer attractive “real” yields vs expected inflation with yields of about 5.15% for duration of about 4 years.
- USD: The recent squeeze up in DXY may partly be due to a rise in risk aversion related to the Middle East.
- Presidential Year Stock Market Returns.
- Market-cap vs Equal-weighted S&P 500 Over Time.
- China’s equity performance is uncorrelated with its GDP growth, while the property market has acted as a key source of wealth generation since 1997.
- Japan – Profitability, Investor Inflows, Currency Kicker.
Middle East Strategy ꟾ March 2024
Egypt | IMF Support + Policy Reforms = Economic Resurgence?
Egypt’s journey towards economic stabilisation and growth has been recently marked by significant developments, including a historic interest-rate hike by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE), a currency floatation leading to a drastic devaluation of the Egyptian pound, and a much-needed $8 billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These measures, essential for meeting the IMF’s longstanding demands for economic reform, aim to attract foreign investment, manage inflation, and ultimately strengthen Egypt’s financial stability.
Citi Wealth Insights
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Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant February 29, 2024
Forecast Update: A “Challenging Resilience”
The US economy continues to outperform, strengthening the world growth outlook, but also challenging it with tight monetary policy. We’ve raised our 2024 real GDP estimate for the US from +1.6% to +2.0% (Fed rate cuts of limited scope are still expected to begin at mid-year).
We’ve long expected a global trade and manufacturing rebound within 2024. Signs of recovery are emerging a bit earlier, suggesting less acceleration later. As such, 2025’s growth forecasts have been reduced slightly. Our world GDP growth estimate for 2024 is revised up marginally to 2.3%. We expect a 2.7% gain in 2025, down from an estimated +2.8%.
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
INSIGHTS
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Disclaimer
This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003. Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.
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This forecast is an estimate/ example only. It is not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment. It is not indicative, and it should not be construed as likely returns. There are potential risks of a loss as well.
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
Warning: These figures are estimates / examples only. They are not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment.