Market Insights
Citi UAE's view on the financial market and the world of wealth today and tomorrow.
Mid-Year Outlook 2024
Renewed Growth, New Challenges: Building resilient portfolios
With rates higher for a little longer, geopolitical concerns, and volatile inflation data. How can investors build resilient portfolios in such a challenging time for markets?
In our Mid-Year Outlook 2024, Citi continues to advocate for a resilient balanced portfolio and sees opportunities and reasons to invest broadly across markets. Read more about our key observations.
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CIO Perspectives ꟾ Week of 7th Oct 2024
Focusing on US and China
The US election remains a key topic among investors as November 5 approaches. Only a strong "sweep" of red or blue can alter the course of domestic tax policy. Across the globe, China's strong supportive measures boosted equities but will it last? This week, our APAC Investment Strategist, Calvin Ha, zooms in on US and China.
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CIO Strategy Bulletin ꟾ Oct 07th, 2024 By Citi Wealth Insights
Answering Your Questions on 3 October Market Surprises
This week, we cover three questions that represent challenges in the outlook for the economy and markets, albeit one that is a positive surprise for some investors.
1.The widening Middle East war: how will it impact the world?
2. Dockworkers on the US East Coast went on strike for the first time since 1977. Could labor actions derail the economy?
3. Does China’s announced monetary and fiscal action change the return outlook for Chinese equities?
Weekly FX Focus ꟾ 3rd Oct 2024
EURJPY - Positioning For Yen Strength Via The Euro
The EUR continues weakening with the release of Euro Area September PMI and with hawkish inflation projections. Meanwhile, domestic players for the Yen are aligned on buying Yen on dips. This caps JPY weakness and culminates a sustained decline in the EURJPY cross.
FX Perspectives | Sept 5th, 2024
Has the US dollar bottomed out?
The broad-based dollar index (DXY) have been in a downtrend since its peak in late September 2022. Much of its decline happened recently across a two-month period since mid-July. Our Head of FX Strategy, Jai Tiwari, explains the reasons for the sudden sharp drop and if the conditions are ripe for DXY to stabilize and possibly rebound from here.
Listen to the Podcast >
Mid-Year Outlook 2024
Renewed Growth, New Challenges: Building resilient portfolios
With rates higher for a little longer, geopolitical concerns, and volatile inflation data. How can investors build resilient portfolios in such a challenging time for markets?
In our Mid-Year Outlook 2024, Citi continues to advocate for a resilient balanced portfolio and sees opportunities and reasons to invest broadly across markets. Read more about our key observations.
Read The Full Report >
Read The Summary Report >
Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant | September 20, 2024
US Policy Uncertainty, Intact Expansion
In early August, we raised our US equity allocation after a double-digit decline in technology shares. Corporate profits have risen to record highs and we see further gains to come through 2025.
After a 50 basis point easing step from the Fed that marks the start of a cycle, markets embed nearly 200 basis points of additional Fed rate cuts over the coming year. This reflects an unusual circumstance of a softening labor market and rising GDP (this is an outcome close to our base case view coming into the year, please see our Wealth Outlook 2024).
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
World Investment Navigator – January 2024
- October 2023 price is gone, the opportunity remains.
- Markets still price in too high a probability of a March rate cut, in our view. Still, 150 bps of cuts expected in 12 months is not extreme.
- What has happened since OL24: Junk rally amid dovish Fed turn.
- How’s the broadening trade going?
- Health Care: the anti-obesity craze won’t stymie innovation.
- Yield curve is now very flat, and positively sloped between intermediate-to-long dated maturities.
- Intermediate IG still offer attractive “real” yields vs expected inflation with yields of about 5.15% for duration of about 4 years.
- USD: The recent squeeze up in DXY may partly be due to a rise in risk aversion related to the Middle East.
- Presidential Year Stock Market Returns.
- Market-cap vs Equal-weighted S&P 500 Over Time.
- China’s equity performance is uncorrelated with its GDP growth, while the property market has acted as a key source of wealth generation since 1997.
- Japan – Profitability, Investor Inflows, Currency Kicker.
Middle East Strategy ꟾ Sept 2024
Economic Diversification and the Reliance on Commodities
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s “The Time Has Come” speech signaled the Fed’s readiness to act at the next FOMC meeting on September 18th. Given the signals from the Fed, we expect that the central banks of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies will follow suit by reducing their policy rates, potentially starting with a 25-basis point (bps) cut in September.
Citi Wealth Insights
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Global Strategy ꟾ Quadrant | September 20, 2024
US Policy Uncertainty, Intact Expansion
In early August, we raised our US equity allocation after a double-digit decline in technology shares. Corporate profits have risen to record highs and we see further gains to come through 2025.
After a 50 basis point easing step from the Fed that marks the start of a cycle, markets embed nearly 200 basis points of additional Fed rate cuts over the coming year. This reflects an unusual circumstance of a softening labor market and rising GDP (this is an outcome close to our base case view coming into the year, please see our Wealth Outlook 2024).
Sustainable Investing Spotlight
Planting for tomorrow: Weaving sustainability into the path toward food security
Rising global food insecurity has come under the spotlight following a series of geopolitical shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Food security concerns have also been compounded by the effects of a shifting climate and increasing evidence of damage caused by accelerating biodiversity loss and water scarcity. Amid concerns about immediate and long-term food security, agriculture policies are caught in the crossfire between short-term food security and sustainability.
INSIGHTS
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Disclaimer
This document is distributed in UAE by Citibank, N.A. UAE. Citibank N.A. UAE is licensed by UAE Securities and Commodities Authority (“SCA”) to undertake the financial activity as Promoter under license number 602003. Citibank N.A. UAE is registered with Central Bank of UAE under license numbers BSD/504/83 for Al Wasl Branch Dubai, 13/184/2019 for Mall of the Emirates Branch Dubai, BSD/2819/9 for Sharjah Branch, and BSD/692/83 for Abu Dhabi Branch.
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This forecast is an estimate/ example only. It is not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment. It is not indicative, and it should not be construed as likely returns. There are potential risks of a loss as well.
Warning: Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance.
Warning: These figures are estimates / examples only. They are not a reliable guide to the future performance of this investment.